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Fiscal outlook for 2021: A contribution from LARM family.


The Consultative Committee for the Fiscal Rule met on November 13, 2020, in conjunction with the Ministry of Finance where an analysis was presented on the fiscal situation; which currently pass the various countries following the highly named COVID-19, this analysis was presented with a view to the prospects that were evident for 2020 and what is projected in fiscal matters for 2021. The Ministry examined the projection contained in the Medium-term Fiscal Framework for the year 2020, which estimated a contraction of the Gross Domestic Product of 6.8% by 2020 and an expansion of 5.0% by 2021.


Moreover, the national government revised its fiscal deficit projections to 8.9% of GDP by 2020 and 7.6% of GDP by 2021. This result is mainly due to the longer duration of the effects of the pandemic, which has resulted in unfavourable recognition of the projected performance of the economy at the national and international levels.


In December 2020, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean recorded its economic projections for 2020 and presented its estimates for 2021. The entity in its last report expected a fall of 9.1% of the region’s GDP, and now expects the figure to be 7.7%. However, it is understandable that this result is still a very sharp drop in GDP. At the global level, ECLAC expects a 4.4% drop by 2020 and a 5.2% growth for next year 2021. In the U.S. . the figure would be 3.6% in 2021 with the vaccine available in circulation and in China, 8.1%, ECLAC stressed that these are two economies that would be key to the recovery of the region.

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It is clear that all the factors of the pandemic affect the fiscal indicators of a nation and the year 2021, leaves us see worrying consequences of the constant slowdown of the economy and the effects of a covid-19 innate in the global market. In turn, it is considered that in the face of these new scenarios the need arises to implement a set of structural reforms that promote the recovery of a country and that its economic reality generates more detailed controls on issues arising from labor and fiscal reforms as-is "As Luis Fernando Mejía, director of Fedesarrollo, has stated on several occasions, thinking about tax, tax, pension and even quality changes in education can ensure a better recovery scenario in the coming years."


Otherwise, the year 2020 saw the identification of potential companies that are interested in relocating to the country. "In dialogue with AmCham Colombia, the Minister of Commerce, José Manuel Restrepo, said two months ago that there were at least 50 multinationals identified to invest in Colombia in ICT industries, metallurgical, construction materials, chemicals, agro-industry and fashion". This would be very beneficial for Colombia in favor of reducing the effects of the pandemic exponentially.



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Key words:

Panorama, Tax, Projection, Growth, Development, Challenges, Relocation, LARM.



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